Fractional modeling of COVID-19 dynamics

Resumo

The present work seeks to provide a comparison between the classical epidemiological model using ordinary differential equations and an approach through the fractional calculus, using the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil as a case study. To do that,we propose a classic SAIRD (susceptible-asymptomaticsymptomatic-recovered-dead) model and its fractional generalization, and we used the 𝐵₁ method and the mean squared error to compare and demonstrate which model and strategy is more accurate reproducing the data of COVID-19 in Brazil.