Fractional modeling of COVID-19 dynamics

Authors

  • Micaeli Mendola Theodoro IBB - Instituto de Biociências - UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho"
  • Thomas Nogueira Vilches Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • Rubens de Figueiredo Camargo UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista “Júlio de Mesquita Filho”
  • Paulo Fernando de Arruda Mancera IBB - Instituto de Biociências - UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Júlio de Mesquita Filho"

Keywords:

Fractional Modeling, Population Dynamics, Computational Strategies, Numerical Methods, COVID-19.

Abstract

The present work seeks to provide a comparison between the classical epidemiological model using ordinary differential equations and an approach through the fractional calculus, using the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil as a case study. To do that,we propose a classic SAIRD (susceptible-asymptomaticsymptomatic-recovered-dead) model and its fractional generalization, and we used the 𝐵1 method and the mean squared error to compare and demonstrate which model and strategy is more accurate reproducing the data of COVID-19 in Brazil.

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Published

2022-09-28

How to Cite

THEODORO, M. M.; VILCHES, T. N.; CAMARGO, R. de F.; MANCERA, P. F. de A. Fractional modeling of COVID-19 dynamics. C.Q.D. - Revista Eletrônica Paulista de Matemática, Bauru, v. 22, n. 2, 2022. Disponível em: https://sistemas.fc.unesp.br/ojs/index.php/revistacqd/article/view/333. Acesso em: 13 nov. 2024.

Issue

v.22, n.2 - Edição Brazilian Symposium on Fractional Calculus – Set/2022

Section

Artigos de Pesquisa

License

Copyright (c) 2022 C.Q.D. - Revista Eletrônica Paulista de Matemática

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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